2022 United States Senate election in Iowa

See also: 2022 United States Senate elections

2022 United States Senate election in Iowa
← 2016 November 8, 2022 2028 →
 
Nominee Chuck Grassley Michael Franken
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 681,501 533,330
Percentage 56.01% 43.84%
Grassley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Franken:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%
     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Chuck Grassley
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Chuck Grassley
Republican

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The 2022 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 8, 2022 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa. Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley faced Democratic nominee Michael Franken.

Grassley was first elected in 1980 and was most recently re-elected in 2016. Grassley, who turned 89 years old on September 17, 2022, ran for reelection to an eighth term.[1] With U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy retiring the same year, he became the second-oldest person ever to be re-elected for another term (behind Strom Thurmond in 1996 at age 93), on 3 January 2023 upon the departure of Patrick Leahy from the United States Senate Chuck Grassley became the most senior member in the Senate, and on 4 January 2023 he became the longest-serving Republican senator in history (overtaking Orrin Hatch), as well as the most senior member of Congress since 3 January 2023. Grassley was reelected, thereby becoming the first Republican to win an eighth Senate term.[2]

Despite his victory, this was Grassley's closest Senate race since he was first elected in 1980 and the first election since that time in which he did not crack 60% of the vote. Franken also beat Grassley in Linn, Story, and Polk counties, all of which Grassley had won in every election since 1986. In addition, this election was the first time that Grassley lost Black Hawk County.

Republican primary

State Senator Jim Carlin challenged Grassley in the primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Fundraising

Candidate Total receipts Coverage ending
Chuck Grassley $6,881,288 Coverage ending: 05/18/2022[8]
Jim Carlin $508,308 Coverage ending: 05/18/2022[8]

Results

Results by county
  Grassley
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Chuck Grassley (incumbent) 143,634 73.34%
Republican Jim Carlin 51,891 26.50%
Write-in 312 0.16%
Total votes 195,837 100.0%

Democratic primary

Former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer finished second in the primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

Former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer was the original frontrunner in the Democratic primary, with her campaign being backed by several prominent politicians and labor unions, as well as the influential political action committee EMILY's List.[25] However, retired vice-admiral Michael Franken managed to slowly overtake her as the perceived frontrunner, assisted by an effective campaign that highlighted his leadership credentials.[25]

Fundraising

Candidate Total receipts Coverage ending
Abby Finkenauer $3,740,881 Coverage ending: 05/18/2022[8]
Michael Franken $2,863,882 Coverage ending: 05/18/2022[8]
Glenn Hurst $129,618 Coverage ending: 05/18/2022[8]

Endorsements

Abby Finkenauer
U.S. Representatives
State official
State legislators
Labor unions
Organizations
Glenn Hurst
Organizations
Individuals

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Abby
Finkenauer 		Michael
Franken 		Glenn
Hurst 		Undecided
Change Research (D)[A] May 4–8, 2022 866 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 42% 4% 14%
Change Research (D)[A] April 6–11, 2022 416 (LV) ± 6.3% 53% 26% 7% 14%
GBAO (D)[B] March 30 – April 3, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 64% 15% 6% 15%

Results

Results by county
  Franken
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Finkenauer
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Michael Franken 86,527 55.17%
Democratic Abby Finkenauer 62,581 39.90%
Democratic Glenn Hurst 7,571 4.83%
Write-in 158 0.10%
Total votes 156,837 100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[40] Solid R November 7, 2022
Inside Elections[41] Solid R August 25, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[42] Safe R August 31, 2022
Politico[43] Likely R October 18, 2022
RCP[44] Likely R October 15, 2022
Fox News[45] Likely R August 22, 2022
DDHQ[46] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[47] Solid R September 6, 2022
The Economist[48] Safe R September 7, 2022

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Iowa debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Chuck Grassley Michael Franken
1 October 6, 2022 Iowa PBS O. Kay Henderson Youtube P P

Endorsements

Chuck Grassley (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Individuals
Newspapers
Organization
Michael Franken (D)
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Newspaper and other media
Organizations
Individuals

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Chuck
Grassley (R) 		Michael
Franken (D) 		Undecided
[b] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight October 2 – November 8, 2022 November 8, 2022 51.8% 42.2% 6.0% Grassley +9.6
270towin October 26 – November 5, 2022 November 8, 2022 53.0% 42.7% 4.3% Grassley +10.3
Average 52.4% 42.5% 5.1% Grassley +9.9
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Chuck
Grassley (R) 		Michael
Franken (D) 		Other Undecided
Selzer & Co. October 31 – November 3, 2022 801 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 41% 4%[c] 2%
Cygnal (R)[C] October 26–27, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 54% 43% – 3%
Civiqs October 22–25, 2022 623 (LV) ± 5.2% 52% 44% 3%[d] 2%
The Tarrance Group (R)[D] October 15–19, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.1% 53% 42% – 4%
Change Research (D)[A] October 14–18, 2022 1,008 (LV) ± 3.3% 48% 45% – 6%
Selzer & Co. October 9–12, 2022 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 46% 43% 8%[e] 3%
Emerson College October 2–4, 2022 959 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 38% 4% 9%
Cygnal (R)[C] October 2–4, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 54% 40% – 6%
Change Research (D) Archived September 13, 2022, at the Wayback Machine[A] September 3–8, 2022 1,143 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% – 8%
Cygnal (R)[C] July 13–14, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 43% – 5%
Selzer & Co. July 10–13, 2022 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 39% 7% 5%
Change Research (D)[A] June 30 – July 4, 2022 1,488 (LV) ± 2.7% 49% 44% – 7%
Change Research (D) Archived April 23, 2022, at the Wayback Machine[A] April 6–11, 2022 1,070 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 42% – 13%
Hypothetical polling
Chuck Grassley vs. Abby Finkenauer
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Chuck
Grassley (R) 		Abby
Finkenauer (D) 		Other Undecided
Moore Information Group (R) March 8–13, 2022 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 45% 36% 6% 14%
Cygnal (R) Archived February 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine[C] February 20–22, 2022 610 (LV) ± 3.9% 53% 39% – 8%
Data for Progress (D) December 2–13, 2021 770 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 39% – 8%
Cygnal (R)[C] October 18–19, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 55% 39% – 6%
Selzer & Co. September 12–15, 2021 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 55% 37% 1%[f] 7%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Iowa
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Chuck Grassley (incumbent) 681,501 56.01% -4.08%
Democratic Michael Franken 533,330 43.84% +8.18%
Write-in 1,815 0.15% +0.04%
Total votes 1,216,646 100% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Grassley won all 4 congressional districts.[97]

District Grassley Franken Representative
1st 53% 47% Mariannette Miller-Meeks
2nd 55% 45% Ashley Hinson
3rd 51% 48% Cindy Axne (117th Congress)
Zach Nunn (118th Congress)
4th 66% 34% Randy Feenstra

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; "Don't want to tell" with 1%
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 4%
  6. ^ "Would not vote" (volunteered answer) with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f This poll was sponsored by Franken's campaign
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Finkenauer's campaign
  3. ^ a b c d e This poll was sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation
  4. ^ Poll conducted for the NRSC.

References

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  96. ^ "VoteVets Announces Final Endorsements of the Quarter". VoteVets.org. March 30, 2022. Retrieved April 10, 2022.
  97. ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).

External links

Official campaign websites