2024 North Macedonian parliamentary election

2024 North Macedonian parliamentary election
North Macedonia
← 2020 8 May 2024
All 123 seats in the Assembly
62 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
VMRO-DPMNE coalition Hristijan Mickoski 44
SDSM coalition Dimitar Kovachevski 40
BDI Ali Ahmeti 13
EUC[a] Collective Leadership 9
AS Ziadin Sela 6
Levica Dimitar Apasiev 2
PDSh Menduh Thaçi 1
DS Pavle Trajanov 1
PDE Arjanit Hoxha 1
LP Skender Rexhepi 1
Incumbent Prime Minister
Talat Xhaferi
BDI
Politics of North Macedonia
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Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in North Macedonia on 8 May 2024, potentially alongside a second round of presidential elections, if a run-off is required.[1]

Electoral system

North Macedonia's six constituencies

Of the 123 seats in the Assembly of the Republic, 120 are elected from six 20-seat constituencies in North Macedonia using closed list proportional representation, with seats allocated using the d'Hondt method. The remaining three seats are elected by Macedonians living abroad,[2] but are only filled if the number of votes exceeds that of the elected candidate with the fewest votes in North Macedonia in the previous election. If a list crosses this threshold, it wins one seat; to win two seats, a list needs to win twice the number of votes, and to win three seats the threshold is three times the number of votes. These seats were not filled in the 2016 elections due to insufficient turnout.[3]

Opinion polls

Moving average of the main political parties before the 2024 election.
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		BDI SDSM LDP/DOM Besa LD A ASh VMRO-DPMNE Levica PDSh ZNAM Others Lead
IPIS 20 February 2024 1212 11.5 21.8 — 8.6 4.1 40.6 6.0 — 5.0 2.4 18.8
IPDV 5–9 Nov 2023 1050 9.7 23.0 — 4.4 3.3 1.6 8.2 35.6 5.9 — — 8.2 12.6
IPIS 29 Oct 2023 1055 10.8 21.8 — 4.4 1.9 3.5 3.9 39.2 6.8 — 5.6 2.1 17.4
IPIS 23–26 May 2023 1,112 12.4 21.6 — 4.4 — — 5 38.2 12.3 — 5.7 0.8 16.6
IRI 8 Apr – 4 May 2023 1,204 14 17 — 7 — 2 8 32 11 — — 7[b] 15
NDI 13–14 Apr 2023 1,003 11.4 23.6 — 6.6 — — 6.3 39.6 10.3 — 3.1 2 16
IPIS Mar 2023 1,114 27.1 — 8.5 4.9 39.2 10.1 — 9.2 — 11.1
IDSCS 22 Feb – 9 Mar 2023 1,002 18 24 — 2 — — 7 38 9 — — — 14
МКД.мк 6–16 Feb 2023 1,200 14.7 22.3 0.2 4.1 — — 6.7 39.2 8.1 — — 3.4 16.9
IRI 19 Dec 2022 1,200 13.3 16.3 — 7.0 — — 7.8 33.3 12.3 — — 8.8 17
МКД.мк 7–13 Nov 2022 1,200 13.6 20.3 0.9 7.3 — 3.5 3.9 40.9 8.9 0.7 — 1.1 20.6
IPIS 4–6 May 2022 1,111 13.4 30.1 — 2.8 — 1.9 7.1 39.4 5.4 — — — 9.3
IPIS 19–22 Oct 2021 1,102 11.0 28.9 2.8 2.6 — 8.0 37.7 6.6 — — — 8.8
2021 Skopje election 17 Oct 2021 – 11.91 24.04 4.20 1.00 — 5.17 35.89 9.19 — — 4.17[c] 11.9
Kantar TNS Brima 27 Aug – 9 Sep 2021 1,201 11.4 30.8 7.4 — — 9.5 27.6 7.4 1.7 — — 3.2
Kantar TNS Brima 28 May – 16 Jun 2021 1,194 11.0 33.0 6.8 — — 10.3 28.5 7.5 2.8 — — 4.5
Kantar TNS Brima 4–6 Apr 2021 1,222 11.5 27.9 6.6 — — 8.2 27.9 9.8 1.6 — — Tie
IPIS 1–4 Mar 2021 1,109 10.4 31.9 1.7 — 8.9 34.7 6.6 — — — 2.8
M-Prospect 16–24 Dec 2020 1,000 11.4 31.7 4.1 — 0.9 7.8 30.8 10.6 2.4 — 0.3[d] 0.9
2020 election 15 Jul 2020 – 11.48 35.89 — 8.95 34.57 4.10 1.53 — 3.49 1.3

Hypothetical polls

Nikola Gruevski forms a new party

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		SDSM LDP/DOM Besa PDSh A ASh VMRO-DPMNE BDI Levica ZNAM Gruevski Others Lead
Stratum R&D 1–6 Oct 2023 1,112 27.5 — 7.3 4.7 17.6 10.8 9.1 3.1 16.0 3.8 9.9

Notes

  1. ^ Consists of Alternativa (3 seats), the Democratic Movement (3), Alliance for Albanians Taravari's - led (2) and the Besa Movement (1)
  2. ^ DPTM 2%
  3. ^ Green Humane City
  4. ^ Integra – Macedonian Conservative Party

References

  1. ^ "Parliamentary elections in North Macedonia/ The date when they will be held is revealed". CNA. 4 December 2023.
  2. ^ Electoral system IPU
  3. ^ Early Parliamentary Elections 11 December 2016 OSCE