2024 United States presidential election in California
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The 2024 United States presidential election in California is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] California voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of California has 54 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
The most populous state in the Union as well as one of the most progressive, California has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992, doing so by double digits in each of them but 2004 when John Kerry won it by 9.95%. Thus, the Golden State is predicted to go safely for the Democratic candidate in 2024.[3]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The California Democratic primary is scheduled to be held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Republican primary
The California Republican primary is scheduled to be held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Peace and Freedom primary
Three candidates successfully achieved ballot access in the Peace and Freedom Party non-binding presidential primary.[4] The party's presidential nominee will be chosen by the state central committee in August.[5] The non-binding primary will take place on Super Tuesday.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peace and Freedom | Claudia de la Cruz | |||
| Peace and Freedom | Jasmine Sherman | |||
| Peace and Freedom | Cornel West | |||
| Total votes | ||||
Other parties
Only one candidate qualified to appear on the primary ballots of each of the three other registered parties in California:[6]
- American Independent Party: James Bradley
- Green Party: Jill Stein
- Libertarian Party: Charles Ballay
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[7] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[8] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Solid D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] | Solid D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[11] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[12] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[A] | January 11–14, 2024 | 1,087 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 34% | 12% |
| UC Berkeley IGS | January 1–4, 2024 | 4,471 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 56% | 37% | 19% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[A] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 37% | 13% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | November 9-16, 2023 | 1,113(LV) | ± 3.2% | 54% | 30% | 16% |
| UC Berkeley IGS | October 24–30, 2023 | 4,506 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | October 3–19, 2023 | 1,377 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 60% | 29% | 12% |
| Data Viewpoint | October 1, 2023 | 533 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 67% | 33% | – |
| Public Policy Institute of California | August 25 – September 5, 2023 | 1,146 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| UC Berkeley IGS | August 24–29, 2023 | 6,030 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 51% | 31% | 18% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | June 7–29, 2023 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 57% | 31% | 12% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | May 17–24, 2023 | 1,062 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times | February 14–20, 2023 | 5,149 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 59% | 29% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[A] | January 11–14, 2024 | 1,087 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 32% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| UC Berkeley IGS | January 1–4, 2024 | 4,471 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 31% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 11% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[A] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 15% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley IGS | October 24–30, 2023 | 4,506 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 29% | 9% | 4% | 15% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Viewpoint | October 1, 2023 | 533 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 58% | 42% | – |
Hypothetical polling
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times | February 14–20, 2023 | 5,149 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 56% | 34% | 10% |
- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[A] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 38% | 15% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[A] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 35% | 13% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probolsky Research | August 4–9, 2022 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 55% | 38% | 7% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in California
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
References
- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved January 30, 2024.
- ^ "Certified List of Presidential Candidates for voter-nominated offices for the March 5, 2024, presidential primary election" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
- ^ Winger, Richard (December 3, 2023). "Peace & Freedom Presidential Primary Ballot Will Contain Three Names". Retrieved December 3, 2023.
- ^ a b "Certified List of Candidates" (PDF). California Secretary of State. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
