Next Bangladeshi general election

Next Bangladeshi general election
← 2024 TBA[a]
All 300 directly elected seats in the Jatiya Sangsad
151 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
TariqueZia.jpg
Shafiqur Rahman.jpg
GM Quader 2023.png
Leader Tareque Rahman Shafiqur Rahman GM Quader
Party BNP Jamaat-e-Islami JP(E)
Leader since 8 February 2018 12 November 2019 8 February 2018
Last election Boycotted Deregistered 11
Seats needed Increase 151 Increase 151 Increase 140
 
Syed Muhammad Rezaul Karim (2019).jpg
Leader Rezaul Karim
Party IAB
Leader since 25 November 2006
Last election Boycotted
Seats needed Increase 151
Constituency map
Incumbent Chief Adviser

Muhammad Yunus
Independent (interim)



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General elections are expected to take place in Bangladesh following the removal of the government of Sheikh Hasina amidst the Student–People's uprising in August 2024. A constituent assembly election will take place before the general elections.[1] The interim government led by Muhammad Yunus has established Constitutional and Election reform commissions for this purpose and announced that elections will be held in late 2025.[2]

Schedule

Poll Event Schedule
Declaration of the schedule TBA
Application deadline for candidates TBA
Scrutiny of nomination TBA
Last Date for Withdrawal of nomination TBA
Symbol allocation TBA
Start of campaign period TBA
End of campaign period TBA
Date of Poll TBA
Date of Counting of Votes TBA
Date of reserved seats Poll TBA

Background

Further information: Student–People's uprising

The 12th Sangsad was dissolved by President Mohammed Shahabuddin following the resignation of Sheikh Hasina.[3] In June 2024, student protests erupted throughout the country, demanding the reform of quotas in government jobs. The protests were met with brutal crackdown by law-enforcement agencies and paramilitary forces, resulting in the deaths of many students. By August, the protests intensified into large-scale civil unrest against the government which eventually culminated in Hasina's resignation on 5 August.

Following negotiations between student leaders and the Armed Forces, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was appointed as Chief Adviser to head an interim government with a view to leading the country to new elections.[4]

The Awami League won the January 2024 general elections following a record low voter turnout and a controversial election, spite of which they formed a government.[5] The United States Department of State, in a statement, said that the election was not free and fair[6] and the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office termed the election lacking the preconditions of democracy.[7] According to The Economist, through this election, "Bangladesh effectively became a one-party state".[8]

The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), demanded that the government hand over power to a neutral caretaker government before the January 2024 elections.[9] This was rejected by Hasina, who vowed that "Bangladesh will never allow an unelected government again".[10] Hasina's resistance to a caretaker government arose following the 2006–2008 crisis, during which a caretaker government assumed military control of the country and arrested a number of political leaders, including Hasina and Khaleda Zia. [11] Khaleda Zia was sentenced to prison for five years on February 8, 2018, for her involvement in the Zia Orphanage corruption case.[12] The sentence was then modified to 10 years.[13] Zia’s successor as chair of the party, her son Tarique Rahman, was also found guilty of criminal conspiracy and multiple counts of murder for a grenade attack in 2004 that injured Hasina and killed 24 people.[14] He was sentenced to life in prison. As such, he was barred from running for office.[15] Khaleda Zia was released by the President of Bangladesh following Hasina's resignation.[16]

Electoral system

The 350 members of the Jatiya Sangsad consist of 300 directly elected seats using first-past-the-post voting (FPTP) in single-member constituencies, and an additional 50 seats reserved for women. The reserved seats are elected proportionally by the elected members. Each parliament sits for a five-year term.[17] The electoral system has been criticised as disproportional[18][19][20] and a key driver of political deadlock in the country.[20] Some of the leading minor parties, including Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, Islami Andolan Bangladesh, Communist Party of Bangladesh, Gono Odhikar Parishad, Amar Bangladesh Party etc., had been in staunch opposition to the system and in support of proportional representation (PR), where Bangladesh Nationalist Party remains a supporter of FPTP.[21][22][23][24]

Parties and alliances

Alliance/Party Flag Leader Seats Contested Seats Contested under Alliance
GA AL Sheikh Hasina
JaSaD Hasanul Haque Inu
WPB Rashed Khan Menon
GP Arosh Ali
JP(M) Anwar Hossain Manju
BTF Syed Najibul Bashar Maizbhandari
BSD-ML Dilip Barua
JF BKP Syed Muhammad Ibrahim
BJP(M) Mohammed Abdul Muqit
BML(B) Sheikh Zulfiqar Bulbul Chowdhury
LDA CPB 100×100px Shah Alam
BaSaD Bazlur Rashid Firoz
RCLB Mosharraf Hossain Nannu
BaSaD–M Mubinul Haider Chowdhury
GM JSD(R) A.S.M. Abdur Rab
RWPB Saiful Haq
GSA 50×50px Zonayed Saki
JP(E) GM Quader –
BNP Khaleda Zia –
Jamaat Shafiqur Rahman -
IAB Rezaul Karim –
BJP Andaleeve Rahman –
LDP Oli Ahmed –
ZP Mustafa Amir Faisal –
TBNP Shamsher Mobin Chowdhury –
BKSJL Kader Siddique –
BDB Bikalpadhara Bangladesh A. Q. M. Badruddoza Chowdhury –
GF Kamal Hossain –
ABP Abdul Wohab –
GOP Nurul Haque Nur –

Opinion polls

Vote share projections
Polling
agency 		Fieldwork
dates 		Date
published 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		AL JP(E) BNP IAB Jamaat Student supported
-new party 		Others Independents None Undecided "Can't say"/
No answer 		Lead (pp)
Daily Inqilab[b] 20 Nov — 5 Dec 2024 10 Dec 2024 6,036 ± 1.2% 5.58% — 61.08% — 14.82% 8.11% 8.22%[c] — — — — 46.26
BRAC 15 — 31 Oct 2024 12 Dec 2024 4,158 ± 1.55% 9% 1% 16% — 11% 2%[d] 9%[e] — 2% 38% 13% 5
Formation of Jatiya Nagorik Committee, a political platform led by the student leaders on 8 September 2024
Bangladesh Speaks 29 Aug — 8 Sep 2024 10 Sep 2024 5,115 (field) ± 1.4% 5% 1% 21% 3% 14% 10% 1% 3% 2% 34% 4% 7
3,581 (online) ± 1.67% 10% 0% 10% 1% 25% 35% 1% 3% 3% 11% 0% 10
Average 7.5% 0.5% 15.5% 2% 19.5% 22.5% 1% 3% 2.5% 22.5% 2% 3
2018 general election[f] 74.96% 5.22% 11.73% 1.47% — N/A 1.76% N/A N/A N/A 63.23
2008 general election 48.04% 7.04% 32.5% 0.94% 4.7% N/A 2.94% 0.55%[g] N/A N/A 15.54

See also

Notes

  1. ^ It is likely to take place between 2025 and 2026.
  2. ^ The Daily Inqilab is a right-wing conservative newspaper known to have a bias towards BNP.
  3. ^ 5.05pp for "other Islamic parties", 0.19pp for "Leftist groups" and 2.98pp for "Others".
  4. ^ In a separate question, 40% of the respondents said that they'll vote for a student-led platform if its launched, while 44% said they will not endorse it. Among the rest 9% were undecided and 8% didn’t give any answer.
  5. ^ 3% for "other Islamic groups", 2% for "for a new political party formed by politicians", and 4% for "others".
  6. ^ Widely considered to be rigged.
  7. ^ "None of the above"

References

  1. ^ "Constituent assembly to be convened for charter reform: Nahid". Archived from the original on September 24, 2024.
  2. ^ "Bangladesh To Hold Elections In Late 2025 Or Early 2026: Muhammad Yunus". NDTV.
  3. ^ "Bangladesh Parliament dissolved, president's office says". Reuters. 6 August 2024. Retrieved 9 August 2024.
  4. ^ "Who is Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel laureate leader of Bangladesh's interim government?". CNN. 9 August 2024. Retrieved 7 August 2024.
  5. ^ "Sheikh Hasina wins fifth term in Bangladesh amid turnout controversy". Al Jazeera. 4 January 2024. Retrieved 9 August 2024.
  6. ^ "Bangladesh Election 'Not Free Or Fair': US". Barron's. Archived from the original on 8 January 2024. Retrieved 9 January 2024.
  7. ^ "UK Says Boycotted Bangladesh Poll Not 'Democratic'". Barron's. Agence France-Presse. Archived from the original on 10 January 2024. Retrieved 9 January 2024.
  8. ^ "Bangladesh is now in effect a one-party state". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Archived from the original on 9 January 2024. Retrieved 9 January 2024.
  9. ^ Kamruzzaman, Md. (January 17, 2023). "Bangladesh's main opposition party demands formation of caretaker government ahead of polls". Anadolu Agency. Retrieved 20 April 2024.
  10. ^ "Bangladesh will never allow an unelected government again, says Hasina". BDNews24. February 10, 2023. Retrieved 20 April 2023.
  11. ^ "Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Arrested". NPR. 16 July 2007.
  12. ^ "Minister: Khaleda Zia's release will be revoked if she participates in politics". Dhaka Tribune. June 11, 2023.
  13. ^ "Zia Orphanage Graft Case: Khaleda's jail term raised to 10 years". The Daily Star. October 31, 2018.
  14. ^ "Tarique Rahman acting chairman: BNP leader". The Daily Star. February 8, 2018.
  15. ^ "Adequate data found to try Jamaat for war crimes". Bangladesh Post. June 11, 2023.
  16. ^ "Who is Khaleda Zia, Sheikh Hasina's rival and former Bangladesh PM who was on 'deathbed' a few months ago". The Economic Times. 6 August 2024. Retrieved 9 August 2024.
  17. ^ "IPU Parline database: Bangladesh (Jatiya Sangsad), Electoral system". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Retrieved 18 April 2021.
  18. ^ Katherine L. Ekstrand, No Matter Who Draws the Lines: A Comparative Analysis of the Utility of Independent Redistricting Commissions in First-Past-the-Post Democracies, 45 GJICL (2016).
  19. ^ "4: Persistent Factionalism: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Zimbabwe", Democratization and the Mischief of Faction, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1 July 2018, pp. 85–112, doi:10.1515/9781626377363-006, ISBN 978-1-62637-736-3, retrieved 7 October 2024
  20. ^ a b "Women's Reserved Seats in Bangladesh: A Systemic Analysis of Meaningful Representation". International Foundation for Electoral Systems. June 2016. Retrieved 7 October 2024.
  21. ^ প্রধান উপদেষ্টার সঙ্গে পীর সাহেব চরমোনাই'র নেতৃত্বে ৬ সদস্যের প্রতিনিধি দলের সংলাপ. Islami Andolan Bangladesh. 5 October 2024.
  22. ^ পিআর নির্বাচন পদ্ধতি কী? প্রচলিত ব্যবস্থার সঙ্গে পার্থক্য কোথায়. Jugantor. 20 October 2024.
  23. ^ সংখ্যানুপাতিক নির্বাচন পদ্ধতি কী, কীভাবে হতে পারে বাস্তবায়ন. banglanews24.com. 16 October 2024.
  24. ^ বাশার, খাইরুল (24 October 2024). কেমন হবে যদি নির্বাচন হয় সংখ্যানুপাতিক পদ্ধতিতে. Shokal Shondha.