Next Israeli legislative election

Next Israeli legislative election
Israel
← 2022 By 27 October 2026
All 120 seats in the Knesset
61 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
Likud Benjamin Netanyahu 32
Yesh Atid Yair Lapid 24
National Unity Benny Gantz 12
Shas Aryeh Deri 11
Mafdal–RZ Bezalel Smotrich 7
UTJ Yitzhak Goldknopf 7
Otzma Yehudit Itamar Ben-Gvir 6
Yisrael Beiteinu Avigdor Lieberman 6
Ra'am Mansour Abbas 5
Hadash–Ta'al TBD 5
Labor TBD 4
Noam Avi Maoz 1
Incumbent Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu
Likud

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel by 27 October 2026 to elect the members of the twenty-sixth Knesset.

Background

Further information: 2019–2022 Israeli political crisis, Thirty-seventh government of Israel, and 2023 Israeli judicial reform

After the 36th government lost its majority, the 2022 snap election was called. This resulted in the Netanyahu bloc gaining a majority,[1] and a government was successfully negotiated between Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Noam, Religious Zionist Party, United Torah Judaism and Shas. The coalition was sworn in on 29 December 2022.[2][3]

With this new government, Netanyahu returned to the premiership, having previously been out of that office since the anti-Netanyahu bloc won a majority in the 2021 election and formed a government without Netanyahu's Likud.

Five members of Blue and White (Benny Gantz, Gadi Eizenkot, Gideon Sa'ar, Hili Tropper and Yifat Shasha-Biton), joined the government in October 2023 following the outbreak of the 2023 Israel–Hamas war.[4]

Electoral system

Further information: Elections in Israel

The 120 seats in the Knesset are elected by closed list proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The electoral threshold for the election is 3.25%.[5]

Two parties can sign a surplus vote agreement that allows them to compete for leftover seats as if they were running together on the same list. The Bader–Ofer method slightly favours larger lists, meaning that alliances are more likely to receive leftover seats than parties would be individually. If the alliance receives leftover seats, the Bader–Ofer calculation is applied privately, to determine how the seats are divided among the two allied lists.[6]

Timing

Per sections 8 and 9 of the Israeli quasi-constitutional Basic Law: Knesset, an election will typically be called approximately 4 years after the previous election, on the first or third Tuesday of the Hebrew month of Cheshvan, depending on whether or not the previous year was a Jewish Leap Year. An election can happen earlier if the government falls and the Knesset is dissolved, or later if the Knesset's term is extended by a supermajority vote.

The next election is scheduled to be on 27 October 2026.[7]

After the Simchat Torah massacre and subsequent Israel-Hamas war, some have called for the resignation of Prime Minister Netanyahu,[8][9] with polls suggesting that more than 75% of Israelis believe he should step down.[10][11] There have also been calls for an election once the war is over. Labor Minister Yoav Ben-Tzur said that an election should occur within 90 days of the end of the war,[12] although he later walked those statements back.[13] Polling suggests that 64% of Israelis believe that an election should happen as soon as the war is over.[11]

Political parties

See also: List of political parties in Israel

2022 election results

For a more comprehensive list, see List of members of the twenty-fifth Knesset.

The table below lists the results of 2022 Israeli legislative election.

Name Ideology Symbol Primary demographic Leader 2022 result
Votes (%) Seats
Likud Conservatism מחל‎ – Benjamin Netanyahu 23.41%
32 / 120
Yesh Atid Liberal Zionism פה‎ – Yair Lapid 17.78%
24 / 120
Religious Zionist Party Religious Zionism
Kahanism 		ט‎ Israeli settlers
Modern Orthodox and Hardal Jews 		Bezalel Smotrich 10.83%
14 / 120
National Unity Conservatism
Zionism 		כן‎ – Benny Gantz 9.08%
12 / 120
Shas Religious conservatism שס‎ Sephardi, Mizrahi, and Haredim Jews Aryeh Deri 8.24%
11 / 120
United Torah Judaism Religious conservatism ג‎ Ashkenazi Haredim Yitzhak Goldknopf 5.88%
7 / 120
Yisrael Beiteinu Conservatism
Nationalism 		ל‎ – Avigdor Lieberman 4.49%
6 / 120
Ra'am Islamism
Social conservatism 		עם‎ Israeli Arab and Sunni Muslims
Negev Bedouin 		Mansour Abbas 4.07%
5 / 120
Hadash–Ta'al Two-state solution
Secularism 		ום‎ Israeli Arabs Ayman Odeh 3.75%
5 / 120
Labor Social democracy אמת‎ – Merav Michaeli 3.69%
4 / 120

Leadership elections and primaries

Leadership elections were held by some parties to determine party leadership ahead of the election. Primary elections were held by some parties in advance of the national election to determine the composition of their party list.

Labor

Main article: 2024 Israeli Labor Party leadership election

The leadership election for the Israeli Labor Party is expected to be held in early 2024; current party leader Merav Michaeli announced on 7 December 2023 that she was calling an early leadership election that she would not run in.[14] In response, Meretz chairman Tomer Reznik urged Labor to hold joint primaries with Meretz.[15]

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the next Israeli legislative election

This graph shows the polling trends from the 2022 Israeli legislative election until the next election day using a 4-poll moving average. Scenario polls are not included here. For parties not crossing the electoral threshold (currently 3.25%) in any given poll, the number of seats is calculated as a percentage of the 120 total seats.

Local regression of polls conducted

See also

References

  1. ^ "Netanyahu bloc wins majority in Knesset, final poll results show". Financial Times. 3 November 2022. Archived from the original on 4 January 2023. Retrieved 4 January 2023.
  2. ^ "Benjamin Netanyahu returns as PM of Israel's most far-right gov't". Al Jazeera English. Archived from the original on 4 January 2023. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
  3. ^ "Benjamin Netanyahu sworn in as Israel's prime minister for sixth time". Sky News. Archived from the original on 4 January 2023. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
  4. ^ Carrie Keller-Lynn (12 October 2023). "Knesset okays war cabinet; PM: Saturday 'most horrible day for Jews since Holocaust'". The Times of Israel. Archived from the original on 12 October 2023. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
  5. ^ "With Bader-Ofer method, not every ballot counts". The Jerusalem Post. 16 March 2014. Archived from the original on 11 May 2019. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
  6. ^ The Distribution of Knesset Seats Among the Lists—the Bader-Offer Method Archived 2 April 2019 at the Wayback Machine Knesset
  7. ^ "October 27, 2026: Judge sets date for next scheduled elections". The Times of Israel. 20 April 2023. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
  8. ^ "Netanyahu facing resignation calls for Oct. 7 security failures, Gaza bombardment". CBS News. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
  9. ^ Sam Sokol (7 November 2023). "Pro-Bibi Newspaper Changes Tune and Calls for His Resignation After War Ends". Haaretz. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
  10. ^ Ariella Marsden (5 November 2023). "Netanyahu refusal to take responsibility for October 7 will be downfall". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
  11. ^ a b Holly Johnston (5 November 2023). "Poll finds the majority want Benjamin Netanyahu to resign as Israel protests spread". The National. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
  12. ^ "Shas minister: I believe Netanyahu will have to call elections within 90 days of war's end". Times of Israel. 9 November 2023. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
  13. ^ "Shas minister says comments on Netanyahu needing to call election after war were 'taken out of context'". Times of Israel. 9 November 2023. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
  14. ^ Carrie Keller-Lynn (7 December 2023). "Assailed for left's Knesset woes, Michaeli says she will step down as Labor chief". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 9 December 2023.
  15. ^ Ariella Marsden (7 December 2023). "Labor leader to quit politics, calls for primaries". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved 9 December 2023.