2004 Illinois Republican presidential primary

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election
2004 United States presidential election in Illinois
← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout70.3% (of registered voters)
56.0% (of voting age population)
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 21 0
Popular vote 2,891,550 2,345,946
Percentage 54.82% 44.48%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Elections in Illinois
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The 2004 United States presidential election in Illinois took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 21 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Illinois was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 10.3% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. A reliable blue state that no Republican has won since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988, Illinois voted for Democratic Senator John Kerry in 2004 with almost 55% of the vote.

Kerry's victory in Illinois was primarily due to carrying seventy percent of the vote in the Chicago area's Cook County, where about 43% of Illinois' population resides. Amongst the remaining 57% of the population, President George W. Bush won 54.6% (1,749,203 votes) to 45.3% (1,452,265 votes). President Bush was victorious in Chicago's collar counties, although the results in those counties were narrower than his victories downstate. As of the 2020 presidential election, this was the last presidential election in which a Democrat failed to carry any of Chicago's collar counties.[1] This also remains the only election in which the Republican nominee has won the national popular vote without carrying Illinois. It also marks the only occurrence in which Illinois has voted for the losing candidate in two consecutive presidential elections (after it had voted against Bush in 2000).

Primaries

The primaries and general elections coincided with those for Senate and Congress, as well as those for state offices.

Turnout

See also: 2004 Illinois elections § Turnout

For the state-run primaries (Democratic and Republican), turnout was 25.23%, with 1,801,090 votes cast.[2][3] For the general election, turnout was 70.33%, with 5,274,322 votes cast.[2][3]

Democratic

Main article: 2004 Illinois Democratic presidential primary

The 2004 Illinois Democratic presidential primary was held on March 16 in the U.S. state of Illinois as one of the Democratic Party's statewide nomination contests ahead of the 2004 presidential election.

By the time of the Illinois primary, Kerry was seen as having all but formally secured the nomination.

2004 Illinois Democratic presidential primary[3][4]
Candidate Votes % Delegates
John Kerry 873,230 71.72 155
John Edwards (withdrawn) 131,966 10.84 1
Carol Moseley Braun (withdrawn) 53,249 4.37 0
Howard Dean (withdrawn) 47,343 3.89 0
Al Sharpton (withdrawn) 36,123 2.97 0
Dennis Kucinich 28,083 2.31 0
Joe Lieberman (withdrawn) 24,354 2.00 0
Wesley Clark (withdrawn) 19,304 1.59 0
Lyndon LaRouche 3,863 0.32 0
Total 1,217,515 100% 156

Republican

2004 Illinois Republican presidential primary
← 2000 March 16, 2004 (2004-03-16) 2008 →
73 Republican National Convention delegates (60 pledged, 13 unpledged)
Pledged delegates directly-elected in vote separate from statewide presidential preference vote
 
Candidate George W. Bush
Home state Texas
Delegate count 60
Popular vote 583,575
Percentage 100%
  George W. Bush

The 2004 Illinois Republican presidential primary was held on March 16, 2004 in the U.S. state of Illinois as one of the Republican Party's state primaries ahead of the 2004 presidential election.

Incumbent president George W. Bush won the primary. Bush was running for reelection without a major opponents, and with no opponents on the ballot in Illinois.

Illinois assigned 60 directly-elected delegates (the state had another 13 delegates that were not directly elected by voters).[5] The Illinois primary was a so-called "Loophole" primary. This meant that the statewide presidential preference vote was a "beauty contest", from which no delegates would be assigned. Instead, the delegates were assigned by separate direct-votes on delegate candidates (whose proclaimed presidential preferences were listed beside their names on the ballot).[5] These delegates were noted voted on at-large by a state vote, but rather by congressional district votes.[5] The number of delegates each congressional district would be able to elect had been decided based upon the strength of that district's vote for the Republican nominee (Bush) in the previous 2000 election.[5] This meant that four delegates each were elected from Illinois's 6th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 18th, and 19th congressional districts, three delegates each were elected from Illinois's 12th and 17th congressional districts, and two delegates each were elected from Illinois's 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, and 9th congressional districts [5]

Ten of the remaining delegates not directly elected by congressional district were selected at the Illinois Republican Party Convention, and were unpledged delegates.[5] The other three would be unplugged ex-officio delegates, roles filled by the states National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Illinois's Republican Party.[5]

2004 Illinois Republican presidential primary[5][3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
George W. Bush 583,575 100% 60
Totals 583,575 100% 60

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[6]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Solid D
Associated Press Solid D
CNN Likely D
Cook Political Report Solid D
Newsweek Solid D
New York Times Solid D
Rasmussen Reports Likely D
Research 2000 Solid D
Washington Post Likely D
Washington Times Solid D
Zogby International Likely D
Washington Dispatch Likely D

Polling

Kerry won every single pre-election poll. Out of the 12 polls taken, Kerry won 9 of them with 52% or higher. The final 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 54% to Bush with 41%.[7]

Fundraising

Bush raised $6,892,187.[8] Kerry raised $7,100,400.[9]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election season because it was expected not to be competitive and Kerry had a solid lead in the state.[10][11]

Analysis

Illinois has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election from 1992 on, each time by a double-digit margin. Prior to 1992, Illinois was considered a swing state with perhaps a slight Republican lean; until 2000, no Republican had won the White House without carrying Illinois, and it voted Republican in every election from 1952 to 1988 except 1960 and 1964, even voting against Jimmy Carter in his winning 1976 campaign. The blue trend in the "Land of Lincoln" in presidential elections can be largely attributed to the dramatic expansion of the Democratic margin in Cook County, which contains the city of Chicago and its inner suburbs and makes up about 41.2% of the state's population.[12] While Democrats routinely won Cook County following the New Deal realignment except in some Republican landslide years (1952, 1956, 1972), until 1996, they did not themselves crack 60% in the county except in their own landslides of 1936 and 1964. In 1992, however, Clinton got 58.2% of the vote in Cook County, approaching 60% and a higher vote share than any nominee had received in the county since 1964, despite the election having three major participants. In 1996, Clinton got 66.8% of the vote, blowing past Franklin Roosevelt's and Lyndon Johnson's vote shares in 1936 and 1964, respectively, and Gore only improved on this in 2000. In 2004, John Kerry became the first nominee of any party to crack 70% in Cook County since Warren G. Harding in 1920, and the Democrat has never been below 70% in the county since.

In addition, the historically Republican "collar counties" outside Chicago began trending less strongly Republican in the Clinton years, and this continued into the Bush years. In 1996, Clinton became the first Democrat to crack 40% in the largest collar county, DuPage County, since 1964, and Gore slightly improved on Clinton's vote share in 2000, holding Bush to a 13.3% margin in a county Ford had carried by 40.5% in 1976 and George H. W. Bush, by 39.4% in 1988. In 2004, John Kerry improved on Gore's vote share in DuPage County by 2.9%, holding Bush to a single-digit margin of 9.6%--the smallest Republican margin of victory in the county since 1892 (apart from the 1912 election, when the Republican Party was divided and DuPage County voted for Theodore Roosevelt).

Outside the Chicago area, Kerry performed well in the traditionally Democratic region of Metro East, as well as in Champaign County, a moderately populated historically Republican county that has voted Democratic in every election from 1992 on. Bush had done well in most of rural Illinois in 2000, and deepened his support there in 2004. However, given the developments in massively-populated Cook and DuPage Counties, this was not enough to materially influence the result.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which DeKalb County, DuPage County, Kane County, Lake County, Will County, and Winnebago County voted for a Republican presidential candidate.[1]

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Illinois[3]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Forbes Kerry 2,891,550 54.82% 21
Republican George Walker Bush (Incumbent) 2,345,946 44.48% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 32,442 0.62% 0
Independent write-ins 4,384 0.08% 0
Totals 5,274,322 100.00% 21
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 56.0%

Results by county

County John Kerry
Democratic 		George W. Bush
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Adams 10,511 33.39% 20,834 66.19% 132 0.42% -10,323 -32.80% 31,477
Alexander 2,016 52.05% 1,831 47.28% 26 0.67% 185 4.78% 3,873
Bond 3,228 43.81% 4,068 55.20% 73 0.99% -840 -11.40% 7,369
Boone 8,286 42.40% 11,132 56.97% 123 0.63% -2,846 -14.56% 19,541
Brown 895 34.62% 1,679 64.95% 11 0.43% -784 -30.33% 2,585
Bureau 7,961 44.47% 9,822 54.87% 119 0.66% -1,861 -10.40% 17,902
Calhoun 1,367 50.52% 1,317 48.67% 22 0.81% 50 1.85% 2,706
Carroll 3,537 43.48% 4,534 55.73% 64 0.79% -997 -12.26% 8,135
Cass 2,492 43.72% 3,163 55.49% 45 0.79% -671 -11.77% 5,700
Champaign 41,524 50.37% 39,896 48.40% 1,014 1.23% 1,628 1.97% 82,434
Christian 6,112 40.03% 9,044 59.24% 111 0.73% -2,932 -19.20% 15,267
Clark 2,877 35.93% 5,082 63.47% 48 0.60% -2,205 -27.54% 8,007
Clay 2,101 32.06% 4,416 67.38% 37 0.56% -2,315 -35.32% 6,554
Clinton 6,797 39.68% 10,219 59.65% 115 0.67% -3,422 -19.98% 17,131
Coles 9,566 41.99% 13,015 57.13% 199 0.87% -3,449 -15.14% 22,780
Cook 1,439,724 70.25% 597,405 29.15% 12,305 0.60% 842,319 41.10% 2,049,434
Crawford 3,194 34.23% 6,083 65.18% 55 0.59% -2,889 -30.96% 9,332
Cumberland 1,862 34.38% 3,497 64.57% 57 1.05% -1,635 -30.19% 5,416
DeKalb 19,263 47.25% 21,095 51.74% 410 1.01% -1,832 -4.49% 40,768
DeWitt 2,836 36.37% 4,920 63.09% 42 0.54% -2,084 -26.72% 7,798
Douglas 2,767 32.40% 5,702 66.77% 71 0.83% -2,935 -34.37% 8,540
DuPage 180,097 44.75% 218,902 54.39% 3,447 0.86% -38,805 -9.64% 402,446
Edgar 3,093 36.69% 5,258 62.38% 78 0.93% -2,165 -25.69% 8,429
Edwards 930 27.65% 2,412 71.70% 22 0.65% -1,482 -44.05% 3,364
Effingham 4,388 26.96% 11,774 72.33% 116 0.71% -7,386 -45.37% 16,278
Fayette 3,571 37.40% 5,880 61.58% 98 1.03% -2,309 -24.18% 9,549
Ford 1,912 29.51% 4,511 69.62% 56 0.86% -2,599 -40.11% 6,479
Franklin 8,816 45.56% 10,388 53.68% 148 0.76% -1,572 -8.12% 19,352
Fulton 9,080 53.30% 7,818 45.89% 137 0.80% 1,262 7.41% 17,035
Gallatin 1,573 48.78% 1,619 50.20% 33 1.02% -46 -1.43% 3,225
Greene 2,457 40.49% 3,559 58.65% 52 0.86% -1,102 -18.16% 6,068
Grundy 8,463 42.68% 11,198 56.47% 170 0.86% -2,735 -13.79% 19,831
Hamilton 1,814 40.19% 2,653 58.77% 47 1.04% -839 -18.59% 4,514
Hancock 3,975 40.16% 5,837 58.97% 87 0.88% -1,862 -18.81% 9,899
Hardin 923 37.87% 1,501 61.59% 13 0.53% -578 -23.72% 2,437
Henderson 2,269 54.64% 1,857 44.71% 27 0.65% 412 9.92% 4,153
Henry 11,877 47.05% 13,212 52.34% 152 0.60% -1,335 -5.29% 25,241
Iroquois 3,832 27.70% 9,914 71.66% 89 0.64% -6,082 -43.96% 13,835
Jackson 14,300 55.37% 11,190 43.33% 336 1.30% 3,110 12.04% 25,826
Jasper 1,781 33.38% 3,529 66.14% 26 0.49% -1,748 -32.76% 5,336
Jefferson 6,713 39.61% 10,160 59.95% 75 0.44% -3,447 -20.34% 16,948
Jersey 4,597 45.35% 5,435 53.62% 105 1.04% -838 -8.27% 10,137
Jo Daviess 5,311 45.85% 6,174 53.30% 99 0.85% -863 -7.45% 11,584
Johnson 1,813 30.91% 3,997 68.15% 55 0.94% -2,184 -37.24% 5,865
Kane 73,813 44.12% 92,065 55.03% 1,419 0.85% -18,252 -10.91% 167,297
Kankakee 20,003 44.42% 24,739 54.93% 294 0.65% -4,736 -10.52% 45,036
Kendall 12,497 38.42% 19,776 60.80% 254 0.78% -7,279 -22.38% 32,527
Knox 13,403 54.25% 11,111 44.97% 194 0.79% 2,292 9.28% 24,708
Lake 134,352 48.80% 139,081 50.52% 1,862 0.68% -4,729 -1.72% 275,295
LaSalle 24,263 47.83% 26,101 51.45% 365 0.72% -1,838 -3.62% 50,729
Lawrence 2,518 37.42% 4,162 61.85% 49 0.73% -1,644 -24.43% 6,729
Lee 6,416 40.41% 9,307 58.62% 153 0.96% -2,891 -18.21% 15,876
Livingston 5,632 35.11% 10,316 64.32% 91 0.57% -4,684 -29.20% 16,039
Logan 4,273 31.73% 9,112 67.66% 82 0.61% -4,839 -35.93% 13,467
Macon 23,341 45.11% 28,118 54.34% 287 0.55% -4,777 -9.23% 51,746
Macoupin 11,193 49.12% 11,413 50.09% 179 0.79% -220 -0.97% 22,785
Madison 63,399 51.26% 59,384 48.02% 895 0.72% 4,015 3.25% 123,678
Marion 7,694 44.67% 9,413 54.65% 117 0.68% -1,719 -9.98% 17,224
Marshall 2,806 42.62% 3,734 56.71% 44 0.67% -928 -14.09% 6,584
Mason 3,215 44.76% 3,907 54.39% 61 0.85% -692 -9.63% 7,183
Massac 2,805 37.78% 4,578 61.66% 41 0.55% -1,773 -23.88% 7,424
McDonough 7,119 47.69% 7,656 51.28% 154 1.03% -537 -3.60% 14,929
McHenry 50,330 39.34% 76,412 59.72% 1,206 0.94% -26,082 -20.38% 127,948
McLean 29,877 41.72% 41,276 57.63% 467 0.65% -11,399 -15.92% 71,620
Menard 2,137 32.51% 4,408 67.05% 29 0.44% -2,271 -34.55% 6,574
Mercer 4,512 50.28% 4,405 49.09% 57 0.64% 107 1.19% 8,974
Monroe 6,788 41.47% 9,468 57.84% 114 0.70% -2,680 -16.37% 16,370
Montgomery 5,979 46.24% 6,851 52.99% 100 0.77% -872 -6.74% 12,930
Morgan 5,650 37.22% 9,392 61.87% 138 0.91% -3,742 -24.65% 15,180
Moultrie 2,388 36.93% 4,028 62.30% 50 0.77% -1,640 -25.36% 6,466
Ogle 9,018 37.43% 14,918 61.92% 155 0.64% -5,900 -24.49% 24,091
Peoria 41,121 49.68% 41,051 49.60% 599 0.72% 70 0.08% 82,771
Perry 4,770 45.76% 5,589 53.61% 66 0.63% -819 -7.86% 10,425
Piatt 3,124 36.38% 5,392 62.80% 70 0.82% -2,268 -26.42% 8,586
Pike 2,849 35.70% 5,032 63.06% 99 1.24% -2,183 -27.36% 7,980
Pope 918 37.68% 1,500 61.58% 18 0.74% -582 -23.89% 2,436
Pulaski 1,372 44.14% 1,720 55.34% 16 0.51% -348 -11.20% 3,108
Putnam 1,704 50.84% 1,623 48.42% 25 0.75% 81 2.42% 3,352
Randolph 6,771 45.27% 8,076 54.00% 109 0.73% -1,305 -8.73% 14,956
Richland 2,529 32.64% 5,153 66.50% 67 0.86% -2,624 -33.86% 7,749
Rock Island 39,880 56.99% 29,663 42.39% 429 0.61% 10,217 14.60% 69,972
Saline 4,697 39.76% 7,057 59.73% 60 0.51% -2,360 -19.98% 11,814
Sangamon 38,630 40.50% 55,904 58.61% 841 0.88% -17,274 -18.11% 95,375
Schuyler 1,594 39.54% 2,403 59.61% 34 0.84% -809 -20.07% 4,031
Scott 927 35.17% 1,696 64.34% 13 0.49% -769 -29.17% 2,636
Shelby 3,744 35.40% 6,753 63.85% 80 0.76% -3,009 -28.45% 10,577
St. Clair 62,410 55.14% 50,203 44.35% 576 0.51% 12,207 10.78% 113,189
Stark 1,189 38.84% 1,841 60.14% 31 1.01% -652 -21.30% 3,061
Stephenson 8,913 41.81% 12,212 57.28% 195 0.91% -3,299 -15.47% 21,320
Tazewell 25,814 41.41% 36,058 57.84% 466 0.75% -10,244 -16.43% 62,338
Union 3,735 40.96% 5,333 58.48% 51 0.56% -1,598 -17.52% 9,119
Vermilion 14,726 43.68% 18,731 55.56% 257 0.76% -4,005 -11.88% 33,714
Wabash 1,752 29.17% 4,212 70.13% 42 0.70% -2,460 -40.96% 6,006
Warren 3,938 46.56% 4,474 52.90% 45 0.53% -536 -6.34% 8,457
Washington 2,986 36.85% 5,072 62.59% 46 0.57% -2,086 -25.74% 8,104
Wayne 2,139 25.81% 6,102 73.63% 46 0.56% -3,963 -47.82% 8,287
White 3,071 37.00% 5,180 62.40% 50 0.60% -2,109 -25.41% 8,301
Whiteside 13,723 51.07% 12,959 48.22% 191 0.71% 764 2.84% 26,873
Will 117,172 46.94% 130,728 52.37% 1,709 0.68% -13,556 -5.43% 249,609
Williamson 11,685 39.00% 18,086 60.37% 189 0.63% -6,401 -21.37% 29,960
Winnebago 59,740 49.20% 60,782 50.06% 903 0.74% -1,042 -0.86% 121,425
Woodford 6,005 31.94% 12,698 67.54% 99 0.53% -6,693 -35.60% 18,802
Totals 2,891,550 54.82% 2,345,946 44.48% 36,826 0.70% 545,604 10.34% 5,274,322
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Kerry won 10 of the 19 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[13]

District Kerry Bush Representative
1st 83% 17% Bobby Rush
2nd 84% 16% Jesse Jackson Jr.
3rd 59% 41% Bill Lipinski
Dan Lipinski
4th 79% 21% Luis Gutierrez
5th 67% 33% Rahm Emanuel
6th 47% 53% Henry Hyde
7th 83% 17% Danny K. Davis
8th 44% 56% Phil Crane
Melissa Bean
9th 68% 32% Jan Schakowsky
10th 53% 47% Mark Kirk
11th 46% 53% Jerry Weller
12th 52% 48% Jerry Costello
13th 45% 55% Judy Biggert
14th 44% 55% Dennis Hastert
15th 41% 59% Timothy V. Johnson
16th 44% 55% Donald Manzullo
17th 51% 48% Lane Evans
18th 42% 58% Ray LaHood
19th 39% 61% John Shimkus

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Illinois cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Illinois is allocated 21 electors because it has 19 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 21 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 21 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Illinois. All were pledged to and voted for Kerry and Edwards:[14]

  1. Constance A. Howard
  2. Carrie Austin
  3. Shirley R. Madigan
  4. Tony Munoz
  5. James DeLeo
  6. Joan Brennan
  7. Vera Davis
  8. Linda Pasternak
  9. William Marovitz
  10. Dan Pierce
  11. Debbie Halvorson
  12. Molly McKenzie
  13. Beth Ann May
  14. Mary Lou Kearns
  15. Lynn Foster
  16. John Nelson
  17. Mary Boland
  18. Shirley McCombs
  19. Jerry Sinclair
  20. Barbara Flynn Currie
  21. John Daley

References

  1. ^ a b Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
  2. ^ a b "Voter Turnout". www.elections.il.gov. Illinois State Board of Elections. Archived from the original on May 30, 2021. Retrieved March 24, 2020.
  3. ^ a b c d e "Election Results". www.elections.il.gov. Illinois State Board of Elections. Archived from the original on February 22, 2020. Retrieved March 23, 2020.
  4. ^ "Illinois Democratic Delegation 2004". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved March 21, 2020.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h "Illinois Republican Delegation 2004". www.thegreenpapers.com. The Green Papers. Retrieved March 24, 2020.
  6. ^ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved June 30, 2022.{cite web}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  7. ^ "2004 Presidential Election Polls. Illinois Polls". US Election Atlas.
  8. ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
  9. ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  10. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  11. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  12. ^ "Cook County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau". Archived from the original on July 17, 2015. Retrieved December 13, 2008.
  13. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
  14. ^ "The Electoral College". May 20, 2019.