2021 Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) leadership election

2021 Liberal Democratic Party leadership election
← 2020 29 September 2021[1] 2024 →
 
Candidate Fumio Kishida Taro Kono
Leader's seat Rep for
Hiroshima-1st 		Rep for
Kanagawa-15th
First round 256 (33.6%) 255 (33.4%)
Runoff 257 (60.2%) 170 (39.8%)
 
Candidate Sanae Takaichi Seiko Noda
Leader's seat Rep for
Nara-2nd 		Rep for
Gifu-1st
First round 188 (24.6%) 63 (8.2%)
Runoff Eliminated Eliminated
President before election

Yoshihide Suga

 Elected President

Fumio Kishida

The 2021 Liberal Democratic Party leadership election was held on 29 September 2021 to elect the next President of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan and Prime Minister of Japan. Kishida was elected to lead the party, and assumed the premiership on 4 October. He led the party into the 2021 Japanese general election.[1]

President of the LDP and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced on 3 September that he would not run for his re-election, amid low approval ratings and media reports of dissension within the party.[2] Suga was initially elected President of the LDP in 2020 to serve the rest of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's third and final term after Abe resigned in August 2020 due to health issues.

Former Minister for Foreign Affairs Fumio Kishida won the election in a second round runoff, defeating opponent Taro Kono, the incumbent Minister for Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform. Kishida's victory was driven by strong support among LDP Diet members, while Kono led polling prior to the election and won the most votes from dues-paying party members. Kishida was confirmed by the Diet as Japan's 100th Prime Minister on 4 October 2021.[3]

Background

Shinzo Abe was elected President of the LDP three consecutive times in 2012, 2015 and 2018 following a rule change in 2017 which extended the office's term limit to three consecutive terms instead of two.[4] He successfully led the LDP to three consecutive general election victories in 2012, 2014 and 2017 and assumed the premiership as the longest-serving Prime Minister in Japanese history.[5] On 28 August 2020, Abe suddenly announced that he would resign as Prime Minister and LDP President following a resurgence of his ulcerative colitis.[6]

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga won the party's special election in September 2020 to serve the remainder of Abe's term as LDP President, with Suga subsequently entering office as Prime Minister on 16 September.[2] Suga had initially announced that he would run for re-election for a full term as LDP President in advance of the 2021 general election.[7] On 3 September 2021, Suga reversed course and announced that he would not run for re-election as LDP President, amid poor approval ratings and media reports of internal dissension within the party regarding Suga's leadership.[2]

Suga's withdrawal from the race as well as the fact that most of the LDP's internal factions have declined to endorse a specific candidate led to the election being described as wide open and unpredictable.[8]

Election procedure

The election process for the President of the LDP is established in the "Rules for the Election of President of the Party".[9] In order to officially qualify as a candidate in the election, a candidate must be an LDP member of the National Diet and must receive a nomination from at least 20 fellow LDP Diet members.[9]

The LDP selects its leader via a two-round election involving both LDP members of the Diet and dues-paying party members from across Japan.[10] In the first round, all LDP members of the Diet cast one vote while party member votes are translated proportionally into votes equaling the other half of the total ballots.[10] If any candidate wins a majority (over 50%) of votes in the first round, that candidate is elected President.[10]

If no candidate receives a majority of votes in the first round, a runoff is held immediately between the top two candidates.[10] In the runoff, all Diet members vote again while the 47 prefectural chapters of the LDP get one vote each, with the result of the latter votes determined using the first round results of party members in each prefecture.[10] The candidate who wins the most votes in the runoff is then elected President.[10]

The party's secretary general can decide to organise the election with the rule of the second round only, as was decided in 2020, but didn't as for 2021.[11]

Candidates

Declared

Candidate(s) Date of birth Current position Party faction Electoral district Reference(s)
Fumio Kishida 		(1957-07-29)29 July 1957
(age 64) 		Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1993)
Previous offices held
 Kōchikai
(Kishida)
Hiroshima 1st district 		[12]
Sanae Takaichi 		(1961-03-07)7 March 1961
(age 60) 		Member of the House of Representatives
(since 2005)
Previous offices held
 None
(Widely regarded as an ally of Shinzo Abe)[13]
Nara 2nd district 		[13]
Taro Kono 		(1963-01-10)10 January 1963
(age 59) 		Minister for Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform
(since 2020)
Minister for COVID-19 Vaccinations
(since 2021)
Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1996)
Previous offices held
 Shikōkai
(Asō)
Kanagawa 15th district 		[14]
Seiko Noda 		(1960-09-03)3 September 1960
(age 61) 		Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1993)
Previous offices held
 None
Gifu 1st district 		[15]

Withdrawn

Candidate(s) Date of birth Notable positions Party faction(s) District(s) Announced Withdrew Reference(s)
Yoshihide Suga 		(1948-12-06)6 December 1948
(age 73) 		Prime Minister
(since 2020)
Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1996)
Other offices
 None
Kanagawa 2nd district 		17 July 3 September
(endorsed Kono)[16] 		[7][17]

Declined

Endorsements

Endorsements of Fumio Kishida
Members of the National Diet
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
Party factions
Other prominent individuals
Endorsements of Tarō Kōno
Members of the National Diet
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
Party factions
Other prominent individuals
Endorsements of Sanae Takaichi
Members of the National Diet
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
Party factions
Other prominent individuals
Endorsements of Seiko Noda
Members of the National Diet
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
Party factions
Other prominent individuals

Recommenders

List of Supporters [41]
Candidates Taro Kono Fumio Kishida Sanae Takaichi Seiko Noda
Leader of recommenders Tatsuya Ito Shunichi Suzuki Yasutoshi Nishimura Junko Mihara
Person in charge Tetsushi Sakamoto Takumi Nemoto Keiji Furuya Takeyuki Watanabe
Recommenders Toshiko Abe
Yoichi Anami
Tadahiko Ito
Hirotaka Ishihara
Kenichiro Ueno
Shohei Okashita
Ryosei Tanaka
Masaaki Taira
Hinako Takahashi
Nobuhide Takemura
Atsushi Nonaka
Yoshihisa Furukawa
Masahisa Miyazaki
Hiroyuki Yoshiie
Dai Shimamura
Shuko Sonoda
Kenji Nakanishi
Yuhei Yamashita 		Masatoshi Ishida
Keitaro Ohno
Ayuko Kato
Hiroshi Kajiyama
Hayato Suzuki
Tsuyoshi Takagi
Shinako Tsuchiya
Kozaburo Nishime
Noriko Horiuchi
Taro Honda
Daishiro Yamagiwa
Masayoshi Yoshino
Hiromichi Watanabe
Kuniko Inoguchi
Eriko Imai
Satoshi Ninoyu
Shuji Miyamoto
Masako Mori 		Hiroshi Hase
Tsuyoshi Yamaguchi
Taku Eto
Miroru Kiuchi
Shuichi Takatori
Minoru Kihara
Hitoshi Kikawada
Akimasa Ishikawa
Takayuki Kobayashi
Hajime Sasaki
Shigeki Kobayashi
Seiichi Eto
Eriko Yamatani
Satsuki Katayama
Shigeharu Aoyama
Hiroshi Yamada
Kei Sato
Kimi Onoda 		Toshitaka Ōoka
Noboru Kamiya
Jiro Kawasaki
Yayoi Kimura
Minoru Debata
Kisaburo Tokai
Yasukazu Hamada
Kimichika Hyakutake
Teru Fukui
Takuma Miyaji
Tsuyohito Iwamoto
Masato Shimizu
Yoshifumi Tsuge
Yosuke Tsuruho
Masayuki Tokushige
Toru Miki
Taichiro Motoe
Toshio Yamada

Opinion polling

Fieldwork date Pollster/Link Sample size Fumio Kishida Sanae Takaichi Tarō Kōno Shigeru Ishiba Seiko Noda Shinjirō Koizumi Yoshihide Suga Undecided/None Notes
25–26 September 2021 Kyodo News[42] 1,014 22.4% 16.2% 47.4% – 3.4% – – 10.7% LDP party members
25 September 2021 Mainichi Shimbun[43] 3,748 18% 28% 47% – 4% – – 3% –
18 September 2021 Mainichi Shimbun[44] 1,043 13% 15% 43% – 6% – – 23% –
17–18 September 2021 Kyodo News[45] 1,028 18.5% 15.7% 48.6% – 3.3% – – 13.9% LDP party members
16 September 2021 Seiko Noda officially announces her candidacy
14 September 2021 Shigeru Ishiba announces that he will not run for the LDP leadership; Shinjirō Koizumi announces that he will not run for the LDP leadership and will back Taro Kono
11–12 September 2021 Asahi Shimbun[46] 1,477 14% 8% 33% 16% 3% – – 26% –
9–11 September 2021 Nikkei Asia[47] N/A 14% 7% 27% 17% – – – 35% –
10 September 2021 Taro Kono officially announces his candidacy
8 September 2021 Sanae Takaichi officially announces her candidacy
4–5 September 2021 Kyodo News[48] 1,071 18.8% 4% 31.9% 26.6% 4.4% – – 14.3% –
4–5 September 2021 Yomiuri Shimbun[49] 1,142 12% – 23% 21% – 11% – 33% –
3 September 2021 Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga withdraws from the election; Taro Kono conveys privately to LDP members that he will run; and Seiko Noda expresses her willingness to run
27–29 August 2021 Nikkei Asia 1,025 13% 3% 16% 15.5% – – 11% 41.5% "Preferred Leader of the LDP"
14% – 18% 12% – – 20% 36% "Preferred Prime Minister"
26 August 2021 Fumio Kishida announces his candidacy; and Sanae Takaichi expresses her willingness to run in the LDP presidential election.

Results

Results[50][51]
Candidate 1st Round 2nd Round
Diet members Party members Total points Diet members Prefectural chapters Total points
Votes cast % Popular votes % Allocated votes % Total votes % Votes cast % Votes cast % Total votes %
Fumio Kishida 146 38.42 219,338 28.86 110 28.80 256 33.60 249 65.53 8 17.02 257 60.19
Taro Kono 86 22.63 335,046 44.08 169 44.24 255 33.46 131 34.47 39 82.98 170 39.81
Sanae Takaichi 114 30.00 147,764 19.44 74 19.37 188 24.67 Eliminated
Seiko Noda 34 8.95 57,927 7.62 29 7.59 63 8.27 Eliminated
Total 380 100 760,075 100 382 100 762 100 380 100 47 100 427 100

Aftermath

After Prime Minister Suga announced his resignation, Kono was heavily favored to win the election as he was in first place among many LDP polls leading up to the election.[52] His campaign was endorsed by Suga and other high ranking LDP members,[53] but Kishida narrowly won the first round of the election and ultimately defeated Kono in the run-off.[50][51]

After being elected, Kishida's victory was labelled as a win for the party's "technocrats establishment".[54] Kishida was seen by many LDP members as a stable choice to succeed Suga rather than a rapid change.[54][55] Kono was seen as a candidate of change.[55] Kishida vowed not to increase the consumption tax rates in Japan and reviewing the pension and health-care system in the country.[54] He has said that his main focus would be to focus on income redistribution to address income inequality.[54]

U.S. President Joe Biden congratulated Kishida and looked "forward to working with [Kishida] to strengthen our cooperation in the years ahead".[56]

President of Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen congratulated Kishida after he was elected Prime Minister of Japan.[57]

Notes

  1. ^ Deceased since 17 September 2021.

References

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External links